AURORA | Nadia Lopez, a small business owner and mother of twins who lives with her husband near North Middle School in Aurora, is exactly who 6th Congressional District challenger Andrew Romanoff wants to meet canvassing on a Sunday afternoon: an undecided voter.

“I start doing all of my research about two or three weeks before. I don’t watch a lot of TV,” Lopez says as he hands her a campaign flier.

Romanoff says he loves to walk among his potential constituents. As the Democrat challenging incumbent Republican Mike Coffman for the Aurora congressional seat, he walks sometimes three to four times per week, said Denise Baron, a spokeswoman for Romanoff’s campaign. She added that Romanoff has been canvassing all over the city, not just the parts of Aurora where demographics favor him. Over Labor Day weekend alone, she said Romanoff canvassed more than 600 houses. 

Romanoff and fellow canvassers, clipboard in hand, go knocking on 25 doors in the north Aurora neighborhood on a “light” day as they wrap things up before a Broncos game against Seattle. 

In a congressional district where Republican incumbent Mike Coffman beat Democrat Joe Miklosi by just 2 percentage points in 2012, it seems possible this kind of door-knocking could move the needle for either candidate. 

Floyd Ciruli, a nonpartisan Denver-based political consultant, said even in a race where only a couple thousand votes could decide an election, canvassing alone does not translate directly into a win. But he said Romanoff is gaining an experience he can talk about in a campaign ad or at a future debate with his opponent. In turn, Romanoff’s campaign is gaining information about a potential voter. The Coffman campaign is on the streets, too, gaining the same intelligence, and not gaining the same sure-fire win.

It’s not uncommon for campaigns from both parties to cull state voter data for their door-to-door efforts. The sorting often involves targeting registered voters who are unaffiliated, key constituencies or those who have voted against their party in recent years. 

Ciruli said that whatever Romanoff learns about unique voters while canvassing will be added to lists the Romanoff campaign uses when ballots are mailed to voters. 

“The bulk of it is to identify every voter you can as a potential supporter, and then call them the day ballot arrives,” Ciruli said. “Most of this will happen behind the scenes. It’s very expensive, and time-consuming. Democrats are concerned young people and minorities will not turn out. They’re anxious to get them all out to vote.” 

Republicans have an advantage over Democrats in midterm elections because minority voters who lean Democrat tend to vote less than they would in a presidential election. Aurora makes up about 40 percent of the 6th district’s electorate, which like the city, is the most diverse in the state. It’s evenly divided between Republican, Democrat, and unaffiliated voters, which gives it a competitive edge over most districts in the state. The district is home to conservative and liberal strongholds. 

This year’s midterm election is also the first time every registered voter in the state will automatically get a ballot mailed to them before Nov. 4. The new requirement is part of a voting measure the Colorado legislature passed in 2013, which also allows residents to register and vote on Election Day. On Sept. 22, Aurora City Council approved its first on-site 24-hour drop-off ballot box to be used for midterm elections at city hall as a way to accommodate the potential onslaught of mail-in ballots.   

A high number of registered, unaffiliated voters in the district that have easier access to ballots makes canvassing equally critical to Coffman’s campaign in this race. 

“We’ve knocked on well over 100,000 doors already this campaign, which amounts to literally thousands of hours out in the communities across the district,” said Tyler Sandberg, spokesman for Coffman’s campaign. “One of the reasons we are extremely confident about the outcome of this election is because of the significant advantage we have built on the ground.”  

He added that Coffman also spends hours every week making phone calls to undecided voters in English and Spanish.