Ads for presidential candidates might be dominating the airwaves but as the 2012 election season ramps up, political pundits will be tuned in to some of the more contentious races based right here in Aurora.
Aurora has proved itself to be a political battleground, as the city has picked up a few new legislative districts during the heated 2011 reapportionment process and is now situated entirely in Congressional District 6 as a result of redistricting.
CD 6, which also encompasses Centennial, Highlands Ranch and part of Lone Tree, is split almost evenly between Democrats, Republicans and Independents. That’s why the swing district is poised to draw attention and possibly heavy infusions of cash by local and national political parties.
About 33 percent of the district’s registered voters are Democrats, about 34 percent are Republican, and 32 percent are Independent, making it the most evenly-split district out of all 7 of the state’s districts.
“I think that CD 6 is going to be one of the most competitive races that we see not just in Colorado but around the country,” said Rick Palacio, chairman of the Colorado Democratic Party.
In that race, incumbent candidate U.S. Rep. Mike Coffman, R-Aurora will be challenged by current Democratic state Rep. Joe Miklosi, D-Denver. Coffman is a U.S. Army veteran who founded a property management firm. Miklosi works for Centennial-based Project CURE, a collector and distributor of donated medical supplies and equipment. Independent candidates John DeGraffenried and Kathy Polhemus have also filed their candidacy with the Federal Election Commission.
The race has the potential to be not only contentious but expensive for the national Democratic and Republican parties.
If the Democratic party predicts that Coffman has a good chance of holding onto his seat, organized Democrats will be more likely to pour more cash into the race to prop up the Democratic candidate.
Coffman is ahead of Miklosi in fundraising by about 4 to 1 said Floyd Ciruli, political analyst and president of the polling and consulting firm Ciruli Associates.
“That means that the national Democrats haven’t quite decided yet as to whether or not the race is worth investing in,” Ciruli said.
The Miklosi campaign has almost $350,000 worth of cash on hand, according to a campaign press release on April 11.
Coffman’s campaign had about $1.37 million in cash on hand as of early April, according to the Denver Post.
Typically, more money is raised and spent by candidates in all races during presidential election years because more people vote when there’s a presidential candidate on the ballot, he said.
The presidential election could also turn out to be a coup for Miklosi if President Barack Obama manages to turn out more Democratic voters than usual, Ciruli said.
“During a presidential election year, turnout typically doubles,” he said. “All these candidates will be dealing with a much bigger number of people that they’ve got to communicate with.”
But Palacio says Democratic candidates should not count on Obama’s efforts to turn out more voters.
“Ultimately, they are responsible for their own campaigns and ensuring that they’re properly tuned into and connected to the people they hope to represent,” Palacio said.
While some political experts see the presidential election as having an influence on the CD 6 race, others see it in reverse.
“I think the CD 6 race could be more of a bellwether for how the presidential race goes in Colorado,” said Ryan Frazier, a former Aurora City Councilman and former Republican candidate for mayor and Congress. He’s also a frequent political commentator on broadcast television.
Frazier said if the majority of voters select Republican candidate Coffman, that could mean Colorado as a whole would probably vote for the Republican Party’s presidential nominee.
The CD 6 race isn’t the only race that voters and political junkies will be paying attention to this year.
For example, the House District 56 race in Aurora could be interesting, said Ryan Call, chairman of the Colorado Republican Committee. Incumbent Democratic candidate Millie Hamner is vying to keep her seat against Democrat David Rose, Libertarian William Hiltscher, and Republican Kevin Priola, who is currently the state Representative for House District 30.
Democratic and Republican officials both agree that job growth and the prospect of economic vitality is expected to dominate the candidates’ campaign platforms this year.
“The message that you’re going to hear from the Republicans from the top to bottom of the ballot is that we have to get the economy moving again,” Call said. Unleashing the entrepreneurial spirit, eliminating government waste and restoring transparency and fiscal accountability in government are ideas that Republicans will campaign on, he said.
Job creation is just as important for Democratic candidates, said Palacio.
“If that’s not what candidates are talking about, I think they’re talking about the wrong things,” he said.
In addition to legislative and Congressional district races, Aurora voters will also be deciding the next Arapahoe and Adams county commissioners. Arapahoe County Commissioner for Districts 3 and 5 and Adams County Commissioner for District 2 will be on the ballot; all of those districts cover parts of Aurora.
Voters will also pick new district attorneys this fall to represent both judicial districts that cover Aurora. Other assorted county races are up for election, as well as county and statewide ballot questions.
Reach reporter Sara Castellanos at 720-449-9036 or sara@aurorasentinel.com.