AURORA | The outcome of Aurora’s 6th Congressional District race in 2016 could prove a bellwether in a swing district almost evenly divided among Democrats, Republicans and independents, and that is also the state’s most ethnically diverse.
“A lot of what we’re going to see in this race is a test of the democratic theory that demography is destiny,” said Professor Tony Robinson, chair of CU Denver’s political science department. He said that’s especially true with a race that pits state Sen. Morgan Carroll, a strong Democratic challenger, against longtime Republican incumbent Mike Coffman.
“Last year was such a bad year for Democrats. 2016 is going to be an entirely different electorate. There’s going to be much larger turnout of traditionally Democratic constituents,” he said. Robinson said Carroll has much on her side that Romanoff did not in 2014, including running during a presidential-year election where Hillary Clinton will likely be the face of the Democratic ticket. Minority voters also turn out in higher numbers during presidential election years, while conservative voters tend to dominate midterm elections. Latinos make up about 20 percent of CD6 voters, and blacks and Asians make up more than 13 percent of the district.
Carroll filed federal election forms Tuesday, making official her race for Colorado’s 6th Congressional District seat, currently held by Republican Mike Coffman. She announced Thursday she would step down as senate minority leader. State Sen. Lucia Guzman, D-Denver, is expected to win that leadership position.
“The theme of the campaign is going to be about real results,” she told The Aurora Sentinel in an interview Monday. “Congress has been paralyzed. It’s a crisis of confidence to get anything done.”
Carroll, 43, said she would best describe herself as a populist, with a focus on how leaders in Washington, D.C., have not fixed middle-class issues such as soaring student loan debt, affordable healthcare, immigration reform and affordable higher-education opportunities. She said she has and always will side with the everyday residents in the district versus larger, monied interests.
The campaign sounds similar to the one Andrew Romanoff mounted against Coffman in 2014 in a race that was predicted to be one of the country’s most-competitive. Coffman won re-election over the former Colorado House Speaker last November by 9 percentage points. Carroll said she expects this campaign to cost as much or more as both parties work to gain seats in Congress. So far, neither Carroll nor Coffman face primary opponents.
Robinson said Carroll has another advantage over Romanoff in that she can call herself a longtime resident of the district, whereas Romanoff was viewed as a Denver transplant.
“She will be stronger candidate than Romanoff or Miklosi. She has roots and is seen an effective, organic Democrat out of that county,” Robinson said.
Carroll has seen a host of fierce legislative battles while serving in the statehouse. She worked on legislation to regulate the way homeowners associations operate in the state and played a critical role in passing gun control laws that mandated criminal background checks and put limits on the size of ammunition magazines. Carroll also led a state fight to corral the health insurance, developer and workers’ compensation insurance industries. She said those battles would serve her well in a Congress defined by stalemate and controlling big interests.
“I’m really proud of my record in a time when no one was sure anything could get done,” she said.
Carroll already has the support of high-profile D.C.-based organizations such as the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. She said that unlike Romanoff, who refused political action committee money in his race against Coffman, she would accept PAC money, like Coffman.
“I know who I’m fighting for. The people who give to me know what I am what I’m fighting for,” she said.
Carroll said she plans to launch a districtwide listening tour July 18 as a way to hone in on and better-understand residents concerns.
“It will remain a tough (race), but I think it’s a good year to run. I’m hoping to be able to do a really strong grassroots campaign,” she said.
Coffman was first elected to CD6 in 2008 after the retirement of former Rep. Tom Tancredo, and he has so far been able to hold onto the district after it was redrawn in 2011 to include most of Aurora, and many more Democrats. In addition to defeating Romanoff in 2014, Coffman won over Democratic nominee Joe Miklosi by 2 percentage points in 2012.
Earlier this year, Coffman was heavily courted by state and national Republicans to challenge Democratic Sen. Michael Bennett for his Senate seat next year. Last month, Coffman, an Army and Marine veteran, declined, saying he wanted to continue his work in the 6th Congressional District, focusing on issues affecting veterans and the military. A former state legislator, state treasurer and secretary of state, Coffman has worked to soften his reputation for being a staunch conservative, which appealed to the majority of conservative constituents in his former district.
“He has effectively painted himself as moderate, serious Republican,” Robinson said of Coffman. “His record is conservative, but in his style as he presents himself, he’s not seen as a Republican firebrand.”
During and after the last election, Coffman shunned party-line objections to some illegal immigration reform concessions and sought to distance himself from hot-button federal issues such as gay rights and abortion rights. Coffman’s wife, Cynthia Coffman, was just last year elected Colorado attorney general. She was recently drawn into a state Republican Party quagmire over allegations that she and Tancredo sought to blackmail state party chief Steve House to force him out. Cynthia Coffman has denied the claims, saying she discussed rumors of an alleged affair with House as a way to get his attention. All sides seek to scuttle the issue now.
Carroll, who is term-limited and plans to serve through the end of her term ending in 2016, said she is not worried about a tough battle with Coffman, and the inevitable barrage of attack ads likely to come with it.
“If (voters) like status quo, they are likely to back Mike Coffman,” she said of her opponent. “You’re not going to change anything if you’re afraid of taking on big fights. I’ve never shied away from big fights.”
Coffman’s political team has so far pegged Carroll as just another candidate in the Democratic Party’s machine.
“We already know Nancy Pelosi is salivating at the idea of replacing me with their handpicked liberal candidate. They spent $5 million trying to beat me last cycle, and there’s no doubt they’ll try to do it again,” Coffman stated in an email sent from the campaign Mike Coffman for Congress after Carroll made her announcement.
CORRECTION: A previous version of this story said Morgan Carroll had the support of Emily’s List. The organization has not yet endorsed anyone in this race, but a spokeswoman with Emily’s List said the organization is excited about Carroll’s candidacy.
Morgan Carroll’s primary focus is on four “middle-class” issues such as “student loan debt, affordable healthcare, immigration reform and affordable higher-education opportunities”. How about middle-class guys like me who work with our hands as skilled tradesmen? Why should I have to pay for everyone’s college expenses, especially professionals like dentists, who then return the favor by charging a couple thousand bucks for an hour’s worth of dental work … root canal and crown.
Joe Hardhat, we all pay into the system; you just happen to choose trade instead of professional. Do NOT, I repeat, do NOT, belittle yourself because you might be blue collar instead of white collar. Simple economics of our foundation.
Please read my reply to retiree above. You always have good points in your postings, but my spouse and I have paid for many past years with building of facilities, we no longer use, and are still paying for them, though we don’t use them. I am a moderate, only being conservative of my own funds (income and expenses). I realize my income went up moderately through the years, while expenses climbed astronomically, especially in last 20 years. Who would ever believe the spending in last 6, and for policies way off in the future, that none of us will be here to see. All the crap of green energy, has been talked since Carter years, yet we have not progressed much beyond that after all these years. Majority of our energy (Xcel) is still produced with coal, with some conversion to oil-gas. Wind and solar sucks without government subsidies, and those companies go into bankruptcy soon after getting government loans. Absolute stupidity to encourage college students to take on student loans they will never be able to pay off, with excessive loan interest.
possibly it is that dentists ongoing debt that causes such high costs for that hours work? Imagine if billionaires like D. Trump were to have to pay the same Tax rate as you and I? and that Dentist did not have such crushing student loan debt? I would wager free market would allow the cost of that dental procedure to be a whole lot less.
I’m confused, Joe. How do you pay for ‘everyone else’s’ college expenses? Should a dentist or doctor not include their education expenses (which can run into hundreds of thousands of dollars for MDs) in what they charge? And I’m sure dental school isn’t cheap, either. (PS – Doctors and dentists work with their hands, too.)
Don’t know about Joe, but my wife was born in Denver 80 years ago. We married 63 years ago in Denver (I was born in Ohio 85 years ago) so we have seen the changes in whole metro area, and we paid for them. Bought our Aurora home in 1963, in military. She and I paid the taxes on this home all those years, and have seen the school taxes balloon. Don’t have any children or grandchildren in any Colorado School now, but are still paying for them in taxes. (As bonus to Colorado schools- Dept. of Defense also kicked in 1/2 what my taxes was in years they were in school and with 2, that made double taxes for schools paid by military in metro area, regardless of schools. Also when I-470 was completed around Highlands Ranch, it was funded by federal and State road funding. When it was built around the eastern side, Romer kicked auto fees up, and Adams-Arapahoe County had voted an increase, we paid every year since. Besides getting to pay a fee, any time we drove on it. So we old-timers in Colorado paid to improve roads, growth, and other stuff over the years, that attracted all the newcomers to Colorado, who now demand benefits, which they did not pay for when they were built. With drugs, alcohol, more crowded highways and city streets, with more night life livers, we seniors are now threatened on the very highways we paid for years ago. Just as we are now paying for the widening of bicycle lanes, which we no longer ride. So lets be a bit understanding, Retiree. Joe has a very good point, and the policies that took from Middle Class, is now making talk trying to shift the blame. I know when my retirement assets felt the pinch (and when my home equity dropped $80,000) and why. You may live in part of metro, where that did not happen. But it happened in my whole side, and portion of town.
Frank, my question of Joe was “How do you pay for ‘everyone else’s’ college expenses?” Your comments seemed more about roads and schools. If that’s where you were answering my question of Joe, please note that state support for colleges in Colorado is low and have lowered over the years. BTW, my home equity dropped too (abt 75k), and it’s now rebounded to 50k above where it was due to the real estate boom here. I wouldn’t be surprised if yours rebounded too. Check your new assessment. But I think you know those things go up and down. Anyway, you answered questions I really wasn’t asking.
Never asked what you retired from, and don’t need to know. However, I have attended UVC meetings (has website) from 1991 to 2013 regularly, and was Secretary 2001 to 2005. We regularly had president or other officials from the colleges in Colorado including University, attending our meetings to talk of tuitions, building expenses, and state support. Much goes on and is reported on the Long Bill each May, but you have to know how to read that to pick out what you talked about. ——Being a politician in Colorado is different than being a federal one, but just as complex, and much under cover, or in committees. I also attended those, and the press releases. When we pay our property taxes, it gets spread by percentages over many departments, and then spread again within those departments. If you were military, you should attend couple of those meetings and see your representatives, or their staff members, including the Governors office. This would help a lot of others who write on net, without knowing what they are writing about.
Nationally, taxpayer support for universities and colleges has eroded steadily for the past forty years or more, which is why the cost to students has risen exponentially way out of proportion to any inflationary trends. So tax dollars are paying for far less than they used to as it relates to education, particularly at the college/university level.
As government steps in to require higher education, then provide easy signup for student loans, we saw the schools set up in every little strip mall or empty building, with a lot of false schools whose diplomas are worthless. And the cost goes up and up. Student debt that can never be paid off.
I rebounded some too, but am still about $30,000 lower than 2006-2008. And that boom in real estate is mixed. Many houses have now been purchased by new owners from the tippers, and also with influx of folks coming to Colorado for Pot, other drugs, and to build supporting, research and production, of medical equipment and other cutting edge equipment brought on by Colorado University and all the other hospitals moving to Fitzsimons complex, and also with VAMC being built, so those facilities down around Colorado Blvd, are moving out to Aurora area, near the freeways, DIA, and all the improvements we did in past years. I really respect Paul and Kate Tauer for being Mayor and supporting spouse during the change, and standing up to Denver Mayor who tried to keep Aurora as bedroom community. Ed Tauer (their son) also presided over the next phase of convention center, new hotels, and growth out this way, with Steve Hogan presiding over the building of I-470 East, though we tax-payers got to spend some dough for that, But it led to buildup on east, and eventually some day will reach Limon or eastern border to Kansas. Depends on water and future administrations. Always knew that Eastern side of mountain would be built in, until there was continuous city from Cheyenne to Trinidad. And it is getting there.
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Representing the people may look easy within the capitol confines, but I suspect that Morgan Carroll has only completed one step of on-the-job training (OJT). She was born in 1971, and Mike Coffman (Junior Central HS, Aurora) was taking his first step by joining US Army in 1972. Served in Army, college, and took next step by serving in Marines, Representative, State Treasurer, Recalled to work with IRAQI to write Constitution, run election, and returned to be Treasurer, then Secretary of State, and campaign for Dist#06 Representative (federal) when Tom Tancredo did not campaign for re-election. I met with Dan Schaffer, who died after election, and Tom became a very active-efficient- working for Military Veterans-Retirees and families, Seniors, Ranchers, Educators, Police, including all his constituents. Tom met with regular advisory board composed of same, all years he served, and Mike has done the same. SO I WISH MORGAN WELL, BUT SHE HAS SOME MORE STEPS OF OJT, BEFORE REPRESENTING AT FEDERAL LEVEL. We only have 12% of our Federal Legislators with military service, and Mike is among highest trained and experienced in Nation for Veterans and Civilians of Colorado.