Aurora is ground war zero for intense battle for voters

AURORA | Colorado voters have had two weeks now to cast their ballot in this fall’s midterm elections, while some have already voted, the majority are either waiting, or won’t vote at all this year.

“Which is unfortunate, but it’s not unusual,” said John Buckley, chairman of the Arapahoe County Democratic Party. “We do this every cycle, and it gives me ulcers every time.”

So far across the state and in Arapahoe County, Republican voters are outpacing Democrat voters in early voting, with 38,000 ballots returned by registered Republicans compared to 29,000 for registered Democrats. Still, that’s only 90,000 votes out of more than 327,000 voters in the county. Independent voters make up the balance. So that means that with just a few days left before Election Day, both parties are turning their focus from TV ads and debates to telephone banks and door-knocking.

It’s time for the political ground game.

But this time around, get-out-the-vote efforts for local Democrats and Republicans are very different. For one, the Aurora-centered Sixth Congressional District race between Republican Mike Coffman and Democrat Andrew Romanoff is one of the most-watched and priciest congressional campaigns in the country. That means truck loads of cash and an army of volunteers poured into a district that was once a Republican stronghold and is now a partisan tossup. Both President Bill Clinton and former Sec. of State Hillary Clinton have made separate Aurora appearances this week, signaling just how critical a ground game in Aurora and across the state has become to Democrats and Republicans.

The district is so important that Colorado GOP Chairman Ryan Call said the state party launched its first localized campaign office in the state here in 2013, more than a year before Election Day.

And 2014 is different in another key way — and one that could be equally important come Election Day: history is being made this year, which complicates the elections even more. This is the first statewide election where all the ballots are being mailed, a change that means typical get-out-the-vote efforts need to be tweaked. Although there are regional voting centers for those nostalgic for actually going to the polls, or those with ballot or registration problems, every registered voter gets a ballot in the mail box for the first time ever. And to make it even more unique, another new state law allowed voters to register for a mail-in ballot up until Oct. 27, and residents can still register in person at voting centers, even as late as Election Day. These are changes that have most election experts and political pundits admitting that Colorado has sailed deep into uncharted territory.

Buckley said the traditional Democratic efforts are still valid, including offering rides to voters who need to get to a voting center, offering to pick up ballots from voters, reminding them to use two stamps if they mail it, and pointing out where they can drop off a ballot.

While voters can register right up until Election Day, few are doing so. In Arapahoe County, just 73 people have registered since Oct. 20, according to county records.

Buckley said registering new voters in the final stretch isn’t a top priority for the Dems, but they are excited about the few new voters who opt to jump in.

“We are talking about people who have never voted before, and decided this is the first election where they will cast a ballot,” he said.

The ranks of Democratic volunteers ready to help in the final stretch are equal to a presidential year, with about 100 field directors around the state and close to a quarter of those in the Sixth Congressional. At a get out the vote rally this week, Sen. Mark Udall said Colorado Democrats have knocked on more than 140,000 doors this year alone, and the party is ready to unleash an army of 6,004 volunteers to reel in votes.

But much of the focus in the weeks leading up to the election has been on calling likely voters who typically support Democrats and pleading with them to send in their ballot, Buckley said. Volunteers and party staffers review a database of supporters and regularly call voters until the state processes their ballots, he said. The effort includes measures to contact independent voters who in past contacts seemed likely to vote Democrat, he said.

“The best pitch is — return their ballot and we’ll stop calling them. That’s the best message I’ve got because the moment our database gets updated, we have no more incentive to call you,” he said.

Professor Seth Masket, chairman of the Political Science Department at University of Denver, said it will be interesting to see if those phone calls are as effective as the traditional methods, such as driving people to the polls on Election Day.

While volunteers know when they drive a voter to and from the polling place that the voter casts a ballot, things aren’t quite as clear when volunteers are on one end of the phone line, pleading with a voter to fill out that ballot and get it in.

“It’s a little trickier, and it’s not as direct, which possibly makes it a little less effective,” he said.

Democrats have enjoyed an advantage in recent years when it comes to getting their voters to the polls, Masket said.

“That’s certainly a lesson from the last few election cycles — Democrats have gotten pretty good at this, and Republicans have seen this as something they should be working on,” he said.

Whether the new system of mail balloting — which was championed by Democrats at the state Legislature — will blunt that advantage won’t be clear until the results are in, but Masket said local Republicans seem to have put more emphasis on turnout, too.

Call, GOP chairman, said the state GOP came out of the 2012 election — which saw Colorado voters back President Barack Obama a second time — determined to improve their get out the vote efforts.

“The results of the 2012 election really brought into stark contrast the need for the party to improve its engagement and ground game,” Call said.

Those efforts have included Asian and Hispanic outreach, and started earlier than they did in previous elections, when the party ramped up its ground game only a few months before Election Day, he said.

“This is really evidence of the significant shift that has been a long time coming and sorely needed for our party,” he said.

Tyler Sandberg, a spokesman for the Coffman campaign, said the Aurora Republican’s ground game is unprecedented for a Republican in the 6th Congressional.

“The name of the Coffman ground game has been personalized contact of a size and scope never seen before in this district from a Republican campaign,” he said.

The campaign sent out hand-addressed letters to every Republican who voted in 2012 but skipped the 2010 election. Those letters hit mailboxes the same day as ballots, he said.

Since April, Sandberg said Coffman has been faithfully calling voters in both English and Spanish and volunteers have been knocking on voters’ doors.

Still, Masket said, Republicans might look back at this election and see that an increased focus on getting out the vote didn’t really matter. That’s because a larger percentage of Republicans tend to vote regularly anyway, he said.

“Democrats might simply need it more,” he said. “Knocking on people’s doors might simply be more effective for Democrats than Republicans.”

Aurora Sentinel reporter Rachel Sapin contributed to this report.