AURORA | City water officials are sounding increasingly urgent alarms about Aurora’s water supply, warning that worsening drought conditions and poor snowpack could force early and potentially escalating restrictions this year.
Aurora Water General Manager Marshall Brown told city leaders yesterday that the situation has deteriorated enough that staff will likely recommend a formal Stage 1 drought declaration as early as April 6, nearly a month ahead of the city’s typical seasonal watering restrictions.
If approved by the City Council, new limits on water use would take effect April 7, officials said.
“Our water supply situation is actually bleak enough that, if things don’t improve, and we don’t get a community response that we need during a Stage 1 restriction, the forecast indicates we may be in a Stage 2 restriction by the end of the year,” Brown said. “That would be really dramatic.”
Aurora breaks water supply and restrictions into four categories:
• Normal: Current permanent rules limit landscape irrigation from 10 a.m. – 6 p.m. for a maximum of three days per week.
• Stage I: Considered when reservoir levels are lower, often reducing outdoor irrigation to two days per week.
• Stage II: More stringent, potentially reducing irrigation to one day per week.
• Stage III: Emergency conditions with severe restrictions, including no landscape irrigation.
“In a normal year, we don’t begin until May,” Brown said during the March 18 Aurora City Council Water Policy Committee meeting. “We’re going to get ahead of that by a month this year.”
The early timeline reflects what Brown described as a stark and rapidly worsening supply outlook. He said current projections show the possibility of moving beyond initial restrictions if conditions fail to improve.
City officials emphasized that such a move would represent a significant escalation, bringing tighter limits on outdoor watering and broader conservation measures affecting residents and businesses.
The warning marks a notable shift from just weeks ago, when city leaders said conditions were concerning but not yet dire. Now, officials say a combination of record warmth, minimal precipitation and dwindling snowpack has pushed the system closer to critical thresholds.
According to the latest Aurora Water report, conditions across Colorado remain deeply dry. More than 75% of the state is classified as abnormally dry, with over half in moderate drought and significant portions in severe to extreme drought.
February and March so far have offered little relief, statewide water officials reported.
Those trends are expected to continue. Long-range forecasts from federal agencies indicate warmer and drier-than-normal conditions through the spring, further reducing the likelihood of meaningful runoff to replenish reservoirs.
Aurora’s storage levels reflect the strain. As of Feb. 28, the city’s reservoir system stood at 59% of capacity, or about 92,000 acre-feet. That is well below recent peak levels, which have reached as high as 94% in wetter years, according to city water officials.
Key sources are already under pressure. Reservoirs in the Colorado and Arkansas river basins — critical components of Aurora’s supply — have dropped to just 51% capacity.
Meanwhile, snowpack across all basins feeding the system is “significantly below” historical averages, according to the report.
Perhaps more concerning, officials say, is how close the system could come to critical thresholds if dry conditions persist. Internal forecasts show reservoir levels hovering near the city’s “caution zone,” where drought management strategies are triggered. Prolonged dry years could push supplies toward emergency levels.
Despite the warning signs, Brown said public perception remains a major challenge.
“We’re running into a lot of people who just don’t want to connect the dots,” he said. “They’re like, ‘Aurora Reservoir’s got water in it — you guys are overreacting.’”
Brown said the city has already had run-ins with a growing list of homeowner associations already irrigating full-time.
To counter that, the city plans to intensify its public messaging campaign, including releasing images of dried-up source areas in the mountains.
“We’re going to be putting pictures of our water supply source areas that are literally dry and rocky,” Brown said. “We’re going to try visually connecting the dots for people this year.”
At the same time, enforcement is expected to become stricter.
Brown said the city is already encountering resistance from some large water users, including homeowner associations and metro districts that have already started frequent irrigation despite the worsening outlook.
“They’ve got their irrigation system going on multiple times a week already, and they’re refusing to make adjustments,” he said. “We’re not in a good situation.”
That resistance is one reason the city plans to more aggressively enforce Stage 1 rules if they are enacted. Violations could lead to warnings, fines or other penalties.
The stakes are high. Without widespread conservation, officials say the system could be pushed closer to once-a-week-only watering restrictions, a scenario officials say they are hoping to avoid.
“None of us want to go there,” Brown said.
The coming weeks, traditionally the snowiest period of the year in Colorado, will be critical. Significant snowfall in the remaining March and April could still improve runoff and stabilize supplies. But officials say that outcome is becoming increasingly unlikely.
For now, Aurora is preparing for a dry summer with the potential for escalating restrictions, and that could start in just a couple of weeks.
“This is not a good situation this year at all,” Brown said.